Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAbout05.04.87 Council Packet� 1 AGENDA COUNCIL MEETING REGULAR MAY 4, 1987 1. CALL TO ORDER 2. APPROVE AGENDA 3. APPROVE MINUTES a. April 20, 1987 4. CITIZENS COMMENTS 5. PUBLIC HEARINGS a. Set Public Hearing to Consider Preliminary Plat - Akin Park Estates b. Set Public Hearing to Consider Vacation of Drainage Easement - Fair Hills 4th 6. PETITIONS, REQUESTS AND COMMUNICATIONS 7. ORDINANCES AND RESOLUTIONS a. Awarding Towing Contract b. Approving Developers Agreement - Fair Hills 4th c. Approving Developers Agreement - Fair Hills Phase III 8. UNFINISHED BUSINESS a. Hiring of Full Time Police Officer b. Additional Office Space 9. NEW BUSINESS a. Consider Feasibility Report - 1987 Street Improvement Project II b. Approve 1988 ALF Budget c. Fund Closings and Fundings 10. MISCELLANEOUS a. Airlake Airport Advisory Committee Update 11. CONSENT AGENDA a. Accept Donation - Senior Center b. Approve Capital Outlay Purchase - Fire Department c. Approve Request for Payment #4 - Ace Blacktop d. Approve Capital Outlay Request - Administration e. Approve Request to Attend Conference - Administration f. Approve Request to Attend State Fire School g. Approve Capital Outlay Request - Fire Department h. Approve Payment of the Bills 12. ADJOURN THE AGENDA IS CLOSED OUT AT NOON ON THE TUESDAY PRECEDING THE MEETING. 13. ADD ON a. Consider Salaries for Planning and Park and Recreation Commission Members MEMO TO: MAYOR AND COUNCIL SUBJECT: AGENDA ITEMS - MAY 4, 1987 DATE: APRIL 30, 1987 5a. Plat enclosed. The developer will be submitting a slightly revised plat before the meeting Monday night. b. Memo, resolution, notice enclosed. 7a. Memo enclosed. b&c Memo enclosed. The memo inadvertently stated that the agreements are attached. The agreements were sent before the last meeting. 8a. Memo enclosed. b. Memo/budget adjustment enclosed. 9a. Copy enclosed. b. Memo/budget adjustment enclosed. c. Memo/resolution enclosed. 10a. Report/memo enclosed. lla. Memo enclosed. b. Copy enclosed. c. Request enclosed. d. Request enclosed. e. Request enclosed. f. Request enclosed. g. Request enclosed. h. Copy enclosed. e%16X Larry Thompson City Administrator • .0 AGENDA REQUEST FORM ITEM NO. Fa NAME: Larry Thompson DEPARTMENT: Administration DATE: April 22, 1987 MEETING DATE: May 4, 1987 CATEGORY: Unfinished Business SUBJECT: Hiring of Full Time Police Officer EXPLANATION: Tabled from 4/20/87 REFERENCE MATERIALS/RESPONSIBILITY: Selection Process - Stan Whittingham REFERRED TO: (NAME) DEPARTMENT: Larry Thompson Administration Stan Whittingham Police SIGNATURE . ~ ~ MEMO TO: Mayor and Council SUBJECT: Hiring Process for Full-time Police Officer DATE: April 29, 1987 THRU: Larry Thompson, City Administrator As per directed by council on the April 6, 1987, meeting, the following are suggestions and recommendations for the hiring of a full-time police officer for the Farmington Police Department. The last two full-time police officers hired for the City of Farmington have been hired through the ranks of our part- time force. The part-time force has been a valuable tool to the police department in that it allows us to view the part- time employee for potential full-time employment. The hiring of part-time employees has been conducted just •the same as if we were hiring a full-time employee. The advantage of this process has been that it has not taxed the department in the hiring process where we have maybe one or two part-time people that we are testing and interviewing for employment versus hiring a full-time employee where we may have as many as 300 applications to process at one time. Since 1979, when the city approved the part-time status of employees in the police department, we have had eleven of these people go on to full-time jobs in other police departments, two of which, with Farmington. I believe the quality of the program speaks for itself as to the quality of individuals in this program. I request of the council to interview from within the part- time ranks, possible candidates to be recommended •to the council for approval to the full-time position. • My second request would be to interview former employees of the police department who have expressed a desire to come back to Farmington to work. As of this writing, I have had three former employees express a desire to return to Farm- ington to work as a full-time employee with the police department. THey are currently full-time police officers in other jurisdictions, I believe that any one of the three would do an excellent job for the City of Farmington. Since each of these persons are currently practicing law enforce- ment and former employees of the city, that very little training would be involved in order for the individual to assume full responsibilities of the job with very little cost in training time. Memo: Mayor and Council April 29, 1987 Page 2 If I was unable to recommend a candidate to the council from the above two processes, then I would request of the council to test for the position and seek the necessary budget adjustment to cover the cost of the hiring process. (See attached sheet for break-down of cost to hire. ) Thank you for your consideration in this matter and if there are any questions or concerns that you have, please feel free to contact me. Respectfully submitted, Stan V. Whittingham Chief of Police SVW/mw Attach. •1 . . • APPROXIMATE COST TO HIRE FOR POLICE OFFICER POSITION Based on 150 applicants received. 1. Advertising cost, want ads for newspapers. = $ 400. 00 2. Staff time to review and weed applicants list to approximately 50 applicants for written test. About 25 hours. = 380.00 3. Letters to all applicants advising whether they were accepted to test or informed that they did not meet the cut-off number. (Staff time, postage, materials) = 100. 00 4. Written test for 50 applicants. (Staff time, test cost, monitor cost) = 1, 100. 00 5. Letters to candidates as to pass, fail, written test. (Staff time, postage, materials) = 75. 00 6. Physical Agility Test for 25 applicants. (Staff time and materials) = 300. 00 7. Letter to applicants as to pass, fail, physical agility test. (Staff time, postage and materials) = 60. 00 8. Oral interviews of 20 applicants. (Staff time, outside interviewers and materials) = 400. 00 9. Letters of pass, fail, to applicants. (Staff time, postage and materials) = 60. 00 10. Background investigation of the top five candidates. (Staff time, telephone costs, postage and materials) = 800. 00 11. Psychological interviews and testing. (Psychologist cost $225. x` 5 candidates) = 1, 125. 00 12. Physicals for 5/candidates. (Physicians cost at $100. per candidate x 5) = 500. 00 13. Appointment of candidate by council. 5, 300. 00 14. Uniform for new officer. (Approximate cost ) = 1, 600. 00 6, 900. 00 ' . ~ ° 15. Fourteen week Field Training Officer (FTO) training program. (Staff time approximate cost ) = 4, 200. 00 16. TOTAL APPROXIMATE COST TO HIRE. $11, 100. 00 AGENDA REQUEST FORM gb ITEM NO. NAME: Stan V. Whittingham DEPARTMENT: Police DATE: April 14, 1987 MEETING DATE: April 20, 1987 CATEGORY: New Business SUBJECT: Hiring Police Officer EXPLANATION: Officer Dale Burns has tendered his resignation to the police department and his last date of employment will be May 3 , 1987 . REFERENCE MATERIALS/RESPONSIBILITY: See memo REFERRED TO: (NAME) DEPARTMENT: Larry Thompson City Administrator Wayne Henneke Finance Director Ae5 SIGNATURE MEMO TO: Mayor and Council THRU : Larry Thompson, City Administrator SUBJECT : Hiring Full-time Police Officer DATE : April 16, 1987 Attached is a copy of a resignation from Officer Dale Burns , Farmington Police Department to the City of Farmington, with a termination date of May 3, 1987 . This memo is to serve as a request to the Council for permission to hire a full-time police officer to replace Officer Dale Burns full-time position. If this request is approved, I will keep the Council informed of the selection process and recommendation to the Council to hire a person for that position. Officer Burns , in his three years with the City of Farmington Police Department has served the City well and has done an out- standing job for the City. I am requesting of the Council, a Certificate of Appreciation be awarded to Officer Burns for his outstanding performance with the City of Farmington. If there are any questions or concerns regarding this matter, please feel free to contact me. Respectfully submitted, Stan V. Whittingham, Chief of Police SVW/mw Attach. • 111111 AGENDA REQUEST FORM ITEM NO. NAME: Larry Thompson DEPARTMENT: Administration DATE: April 22, 1987 ' I t s-/yl7 MEETING DATE: May 4, 1987 CATEGORY: New Business SUBJECT: Approve 1988 ALF Budget EXPLANATION: Per ALF Joint Powers Agreement REFERENCE MATERIALS/RESPONSIBILITY: Explanation - Larry Thompson REFERRED TO: (NAME) DEPARTMENT: Larry Thompson Administration Stan Whittingham Police Wayne Henneke Finance SIGNATOR A14i3ULPJT ti,, III 16.1 14200 Cedar Avenue South Apple Valley, Minnesota 55124 Phone — 612-432-5664 ALF AMBULANCE 1988 PROPOSED BUDGET To the Honorable Mayor and City Council Members: Attached to this letter is the proposed budget for ALF Ambulance for the 1988 fiscal year. Per the three City Ambulance Joint Powers Agreement, the ALF Ambulance Board has reviewed, and are hereby recommending for approval by the three City Councils the attached budget proposal. It is my goal for fiscal year 1988 to see ALF Ambulance continue to deliver high quality emergency medical services to the citizens in the ambulance service area. We will strive to improve our service wherever and whenever it is possible. The following is a breakdown and short synopsis of the budget proposal: The Ambulance Board has opted to increase the level of service to the three communities by increasing coverage days of the second ambulance. The second ambulance (Power Shift) is currently on (4) days a week with current days and times of: L: Saturday 12 noon - 10:00 p.m. Monday 12 noon - 8:00 p.m. Thursday 12 noon - 8:00 p.m. Friday 12 noon - 8:00 p.m. The proposed budget would expand power shift coverage to (7) days a week with the same coverage of hours as listed above. Since the start-up of the second unit in the fall of '86, it has proven itself as quite an asset. Revenue generated from the second unit on simultaneous calls (two units out at the same time) has nearly paid for the salaries to staff that unit. Response times and coverage have also been improved with the operation of the second unit. Budget increases are: - Salaries: Paramedics will progress from the 4 year pay level to the 5 year level which is a 2% increase. A maximum of 3% has been budgeted for a cost of living increase/merit raise. An additional $19,900.00* has been added to cover part-time salaries and benefits for the additional (3) days of coverage by the second ambulance. * Because of the increase in coverage days with the second ambulance there will be the ability to handle more simultaneous calls, which means less dependence on mutual aid. Budget wise I am projecting approximately $11,000.00 more in billable revenue. Uniforms: $1,000.00 increase for uniform expense for (5) additional part-time paramedics. Fuel: $675.00 increase for gasoline to cover additional days. Professional Services: $3,000.00 increase. This line item is for our billing services (currently Sanford Hospital) . Insurance: $3,500.00 increase. This is truly a hard item to budget for. Our current insurance premium for 1987 is $11,675.00 which includes $2,500.00 for umbrella coverage. Hopefully insurance rates will have stabilized somewhat for next year and we should not exper- ience a large increase. Vehicle Repair: $2,000.00 increase. We put on about 20,000 miles per year on each unit. As their mileage and age increase so will mainte- nance costs and up-keep. The units also had an extended warranty which covered them for major repairs, which is currently expired on one unit and very close to expiration on the other. This basically sums up the increases for the 1988 proposed budget. If any Council Member should have any questions of require more information please contact me. Respectfully submitted, Kevin J. Raun Ambulance Director Attachment: 1988 Proposed Budget a . . A L F AMBULANCE 1 9 8 8 BUDGET OPTION B (1988 — Power shift seven days a week) M1 t s ALF AMBULANCE BALANCE SHEET 1986 1987 1988 ASSETS Current assets Cash 67, 935 92, 094 86, 655 Accounts receivable, net 57, 302 63,032 69, 335 Prepaid expenses 15, 971 17,568 19, 325 Total current assets $141,208 $172, 695 $175,316 Property, plant and equipment Machinery + equipment $154,253 $154,253 $154,253 Less: accumulated depreciation (17,749) . (35,449) (53,209) Net equipment $136,504 $118, 804 $101,044 Total assets $277,712 $291,499 $276, 360 LIABILITIES AND RETAINED EARNINGS Current liabilities Accrued salaries $4, 626 $5, 089 $5,597 Accounts Payable 20, 082 20, 082 20,082 Accrued interest payable 1,469 1, 013 523 Bonds payable-current 47, 500 47,500 47,500 Total current liabilities $73, 677 $73,684 $73, 702 Long-term liabilities Bonds Payable $95, 000 $47,500 Retained earnings Designated 23,375 47, 685 Undesignated 109, 035 146, 940 155, 032 Total retained earnings $109, 035 $170, 315 $202,717 Total $277,712 $291,499 $276,420 ALF• AMBULANCE STATEMENT OF REVENUES AND EXPENSE 1986 1987 1988 ACTUAL ESTIMATE ESTIMATE Revenues City support $159,000 $186, 851 $170,434 Township support 4, 820 6, 000 6,000 Service billings 273,381 275,000 286,000 Miscellaneous 1,955 2,000 2,500 Interest 4, 066 3, 397 2,875 Total revenues $443,222 $473,248 $467,809 Expense . Salaries full-time $187,461. $224, 198 $245,862 PERA 7,799 9,530 10,450 FICA 13,078 16, 030 17,530 Hospitalization 10,447 15,840 14,700 Workmans Comp 14, 753 22,420 21,685 Office. supplies 1, 048 1,500 1,000 Operating Supplies 2,924 1,500 1,000 Motor fuels 4,469 6,500 7,500 Lubricants 750 500 Clothing 3, 036 2, 000 3,500 Oxygen 0 400 425 Equipment parts 1, 131 1,500 1,500 Medical supplies 570 6,000 6, 300 Audit 0 500 500 Professional services 1, 762 13, 000 13, 000 Use of personal auto 386 600 500 Print public information 548 200 210 Promotions 600 650 Insurance 9,400 10,500 12, 000 Postage 100 100 Telephone 1,431 1, 200 1, 365 Contract equip repair 1,218 1, 000 500 Contract radio repair 1,200 1,260 Contract vehicle repair 1,500 3,500 Contract linen 600 600 Data processing 212 150 150 Miscellaneous 184 0 0 Schools + conferences 195 4, 000 2, 100 Dues + subscriptions 336 500 500 Licenses and taxes 250 260 Uncollectible accounts 40, 895 41,250 42, 900 Interest expense 10, 890 8, 950 5,600 Depreciation 17, 749 17, 700 17, 760 Total expense $331, 922 $411, 968 $435,407 Net increase/(dec. ) $111, 300 $61, 280 $32,402 ALF AMBULANCE WORKING CAPITAL 1986 1987 1988 ACTUAL ESTIMATE ESTIMATE Current assets Cash $67, 935 $92,094 $86,655 Accounts receivable, net 57, 302 63, 032 69,335 Prepaid expenses 15, 971 17,568 19, 325 Total current assets $141,208 $172, 695 $175, 316 Current liabilities Accrued salaries $4, 626 $5, 089 $5,597 Accounts payable 20,082 20,082 20,082 Accrued interest payable, 1,469 1,013 523 Bonds payable-current 47,500 47,500 47,500 Total current liabilities $73,677 $73, 684 $73, 702 Total working capital $67,531 $99, 011 $101, 613 CHANGES IN WORKING CAPITAL 1986 1987 1988 ACTUAL ESTIMATE ESTIMATE Funds provided Net income $111,300 $61,280 $32,402 Depreciation 17,749 17, 700 17, 700 Total funds provided $129, 049 $78, 980 $50, 102 Funds applied Additions to fixed assets $2, 992 Debt retirement 47,500 47,500 47, 500 Total funds provided $50,492 $47,500 $47, 500 Net increase/(decrease) in working cap $78,557 $31,480 $2, 602 Working capital, January 1 (11, 026) 67,531 99, 011 Working capital, December 31 $67, 531 $99, 011 $101, 613 BUDGET ASSUMPTIONS 1986 1987 1988 ACTUAL ESTIMATE ESTIMATE POPULATION Apple Valley 26, 920 28,538 29, 109 Lakeville 17,270 17,865 18, 222 Farmington 4, 780 5,010 5, 110 Total population 48, 970 51,413 52,441 PER CAPITA COST $3. 25 $3. 69 $3.25 COST PER CITY Apple Valley $87,406. $105,346 $94, 603 Lakeville 56, 074 65,947 59,222 Farmington 15,520 18,494 16, 608 $159,000 $189,787 $170,434 SERVICE BILLINGS Total transports 1, 158 1, 000 1, 040 Average revenue per call $236 $275 $275 Total service billings $273, 381 $275,000 $286, 000 SERVICE BILLINGS- For operations 251,625 261, 690 Designated for future equipment replacement 23, 375 24, 310 $275, 000 $286, 000 i • AGENDA REQUEST FORM ITEM NO._EL NAME: Larry Thompson DEPARTMENT: Administration DATE: April 28, 1987 MEETING DATE: May 4, 1987 CATEGORY: Miscellaneous SUBJECT: Airlake Airport Advisory Committee Update EXPLANATION: Review and comment on Airport Forecast and Aviation Demand REFERENCE MATERIALS/RESPONSIBILITY: Report - Larry Thompson REFERRED TO: (NAME) DEPARTMENT: Larry Thompson Administration Charlie Tooker Planning V SIGNATU • MEMO TO: MAYOR AND COUNCIL SUBJECT: AIRLAKE AIRPORT FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND DATE: APRIL 29, 1987 I have reviewed the Airlake Airport Forecast of Aviation Demand prepared by Airlake Airport Advisory Committee and would like to make the following observations. If given a superficial review, the study appears to be sound, given the statistical methods used to derive the various forecasts. Upon a more detailed review, however, most forecasts are prefaced by "the data base was slightly changed" (p.2-4) , "estimated by MAC" (p.2-4) , "amount of available data was minimal for regression analysis" (p.2-7) , "Based on the assumption" (p.2-8) "Based on MAC estimated annual operations" (p.2-12) , "lack of historical data" (p.2-14) , "Due to lack of verifiable data operations were estimated" (p.2-15) , "since there are no monthly operations records.. . and thus no accurate way to determine" (p.2-16) , "Due to lack of historical data" (p.2-17) etc. Yet the tables indicating existing 1986 data are not prefaced by the term "estimated". When reading the tables, it appears that the 1986 data is actual when, in fact, most of it is estimated. I would like to see the 1986 data that is estimated be clearly labeled. This would also be the case in the text (e.g. p.2-15: This resulted in an "estimated" 54 operations per week or an "estimated" 2,808 practice instrument operations per year.) A second point is the reference to the impact of the Instrument Landing System (ILS) recently installed at Airlake (p. 2-16) . The consultant states that the impact will be mitigated by installation of similar devices at St. Paul Downtown and Flying Cloud. Rather than present arguments why this might not be the case (e.g. locations, traffic, etc.) the statement should be clarified to state "may be balanced. . ." Third, when certain statistics point to a potential boom at AirLake, the consultant throws out the data by stating "it is felt that the growth will not continue" (p.2-4) and ". . .such growth was felt to be unprecedented and unlikely to continue" (p.2-4) . This is basically the same response the City receives from Met Council staff when requesting additional urban service area based on past growth. City staff was told in 1984 that 1983 was an anomaly. Again, staff was told in early 1986 that 1983, 1984 and 1985 were blips and that the remainder of the decade would even out. 1986, and now 1987, seem to disprove these statements. The top graph on p.2-11 shows a steep increase until 1986, then the consultant levels it off because "it is felt" the growth should then stabilize. Finally, the report only considers based aircraft, landings and practice approaches. The Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve use the VOR located just east of Airlake for practice. It would seem that these practice drills would have an impact on airport safety. • In summary, while the report is based on statistical method, most of the estimates are based on estimates, assumptions and gut feelings. Therefore, the entire report should be clearly stated as such. 64A./ Charles Tooker Planner CT/mh cc: Larry Thompson • MEMO TO: MAYOR AND COUNCIL SUBJECT: AIRLAKE AIRPORT ADVISORY COMMITTEE - UPDATE DATE: APRIL 28, 1987 Attached, please find a memo from MAC relating to work completed by the Airlake Airport Advisory Committee. Please review the report and be prepared to discuss it during the next regular Council meeting. If you have any questions, or wish to discuss the report before the meeting, please contact me. GIX Larr ompson City Administrator LT/mh cc: Charlie Tooker file MEMORAN APR 2 22987 April 16, 1987 TO: Airlake Airport Advisory Committee FROM: L. James Fortman, Director of Airport Development Metropolitan Airports Commission RE: Draft: Airlake Airport Forecast of Aviation Demand The process of developing a long term comprehensive airport plan is a complex one requiring input and data from many sources. This is certainly the case for Airlake Airport and was the basis for the formation of the Airlake Airport Advisory Committee. You were asked to participate in this committee because of interests in the area around the airport, and most importantly, to discuss and provide input from the people wham you represent. Attached is the final draft copy of the Airlake Airport Forecast of Aviation Demand as developed by our consultants, Hoyle, Tanner & Associates, Inc. We request that you review this document with the group you represent and make comments or suggestions on whether the document is understandable or if there needs to be any further clarification. Please remember that this information is a key part of the planning process and is used to establish the guidelines for future airport improvements with the short term forecast considered most accurate. The forecast will be updated in the future on a five (5) year interval and adjusted to reflect conditions that might change the demand levels. We will also be obtaining comments from the Federal Aviation Administration, the Minnesota Department of Transportation - Division of Aeronautics and the Metropolitan Council. These comments will be reviewed with the Advisory Committee as they are received. We would appreciate having all comments by May 15, 1987. Thank you for your continuing assistance in preparing the Airlake Airport Long Term Comprehensive Airport Plan. We do look forward to the comments from your representative group. /kp DRAFT WORKING PAPERS FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND AIRLAKE AIRPORT PREPARED FOR METROPOLITAN AIRPORTS COMMISSION APRIL 16 , 1987 Hrk engineers architects planners companies • TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 . 0 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND Pa e 2 . 1 INTRODUCTION 2-1 2 . 2 FORECAST METHODOLOGY 2-3 2 . 2 . 1 Comparative Trend Analysis 2-3 2 . 2 . 2 Growth Rates Based on Population 2-4 2 . 2 . 3 Regression Analysis Based on Population 2-7 2 . 2 . 4 Market Share Analysis 2-7 2 . 3 PREFERRED FORECAST 2-10 2 . 4 BASED AIRCRAFT FORECASTS 2-10 2 . 4 . 1 Based Aircraft Mix 2-12 2 . 5 OPERATIONS FORECASTS 2-12 2 . 5 . 1 Operations per Based Aircraft 2-13 2 . 5 . 2 Local/Itinerant Forecasts 2-14 2 . 5 . 3 Annual Instrument Operations 2-15 2 . 5 . 4 Peak Hour Operations 2-16 2 . 5 . 5 Night Operations 2-17 2 . 6 FORECAST SUMMARY 2-18 • • 2 . 0 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND 2 . 1 Introduction Historically, aviation growth shows cyclical peaks and valleys that forecasting tends to smooth out. In addition, forecast numbers imply a range, not necessarily a "hard" number . This chapter presents projections for three forecast years : 1991 , 1996 , and 2006 . These forecast years represent the short term, intermediate term, and long term planning periods for the development of the Airlake Airport Long Term Comprehensive Development Plan. These planning periods are prescribed only as guidelines with the short term forecast considered most accurate . Planned improvements are more closely tied to reaching forecast levels rather than to actual dates . Thus , facility improvements will be keyed to a forecasted level of activity, which might not necessarily fall within the prescribed planning period. In this element, the following data were determined to be most critical in the development of the forecasts for Airlake Airport: • National , state, regional , and local trends of various types and levels of aviation activity. • Population and socio-economic data. • Historical aviation data. Limited historical data exists due to the airport' s recent purchase by MAC and its function as a non-towered facility. There has been one previous forecasting study which included data for the Airlake Airport : • Year 2003 Metropolitan Aviation System Plan Technical Report by Charles River Associates ( 1985 ) , prepared for the Metropolitan Council on aviation activities in the Minneapolis- St . Paul Metropolitan area. This study was developed for an entire metropolitan area, not for any specific airport. The data was generated for reasons other than that of a long-term comprehensive airport development plan. Consequently, this source was reviewed only for general knowledge and was considered not entirely appropriate to the comprehensive planning activities being performed for Airlake Airport . 2-1 The key to this forecasting technique was to identify significant trends and data of sufficient accuracy and then correlate this information with the expected aviation activity and demand. Therefore , the significant data included population trends , county and state aircraft ownership, and economic development activities of the area. Generally, the Airlake Airport area has shown a significant population increase in relation to the metropolitan area and is forecasted by the Metropolitan Council to remain one of the fastest growing areas in the future . However , national aviation trends indicate that the long term growth and activity levels of the general aviation aircraft fleet may be declining . This may be caused in large part by the rapidly rising aircraft prices , declining productivity, high operating costs due to tax legislated changes and significantly higher product liability insurance costs . The aircraft manufacturers are having to pay substantially higher liability insurance costs not only for their new aircraft but also for older aircraft , sometimes dating back 25-30 years . Consequently, aircraft prices have increased, resulting in current aircraft owners putting their money into updating their older aircraft with state-of-the-art avionics ( radios , navigational aids , etc . ) rather than purchasing newer aircraft . Nevertheless , the activity and numbers of aircraft at Airlake Airport have increased in recent years . Additionally, significant interest has been shown in the development and demand for aircraft storage hangars , thus influencing future activity levels and airport facility requirements . All of these factors will relate to the forecast data presented in this chapter. These forecasts represent the potential aviation activity with all of the elements that tend to create aviation demand, without regard to any constraints such as airspace , airport access , limited airport expansion capability, or the airport functional classification which could limit growth. However, all potential constraints will be fully considered during the alternatives evaluation effort and forecasts will be adjusted as necessary to reflect constraints on either the magnitude or types of projected aviation activities . Due to the previously mentioned lack of historical data, the consultant sought secondary sources of data and employed various methods of forecasting . These factors helped to establish reasonable and workable data to serve as the basis for the planning of the airport ' s facility requirement . The following four forecasting methodologies 9-9 • were developed to establish the planning data base for Airlake Airport and will be described in terms of their development and application to the forecast of aviation demand. • Comparative Trend Analysis - a comparison of known trends in aviation activity at all MAC airports except Minneapolis-St. Paul International (MSP) . • Growth Rates Based on Population - developed to generally identify a correlation between the population trends of the Airlake Airport area and the recent aviation activity of the airport. • Regression Analysis Based on Population - a statistical tool used to measure a relationship between known variables . In this case, the independent variable was the area' s population, the dependent variable was the airport ' s aviation activity. • Market Share Analysis - developed to determine the share of the aviation market that Airlake Airport holds within the state (Minnesota) . 2 . 2 Forecast Methodology 2 . 2 . 1 Comparative Trend Analysis Based Aircraft From MAC records , the number of based aircraft at MAC owned and operated airports , except MSP, was examined for the period 1970-1986 . These airports were Airlake , Anoka County, Crystal , Flying Cloud, Lake Elmo , and St . Paul Downtown. Each airport was first analyzed individually for year-to-year changes in based aircraft in order to obtain an overall trend at airports in the metropolitan area. Attention was then focused on more recent data, namely that of 1983-1986 , years for which comparable Airlake data was available. A comparative trend analysis of the six airports over the three year period showed an annual increase in number of based aircraft only at Airlake and Anoka County airports : approximately 36% per annum at Airlake, 4% at Anoka. Crystal , Flying Cloud, St. Paul Downtown, and Lake Elmo experienced either a decrease or no change. All but Lake Elmo have physical constraints with little additional aircraft storage space available at this time. While the development of the Airlake forecast is undertaken 2-3 initially without consideration of potential constraints on its development, it is felt that the growth in based aircraft of approximately 150% in the past three years has been unprecedented and will not continue at the current rate . No other airport under consideration has recently experienced a similar growth . However, Anoka County airport experielced a generally steady, overall trend in growth of bared aircraft which is indicative of the direction in which Airlake is probably proceeding . Except for a decline of approximately 6% in 1982 and insignificant changes in 1983 and 1986 , Anoka' s based aircraft have been steadily inc ^easing since 1974 . Recent general demographic trends in the Airlake and Anoka communities indicate similar growth patterns . With these factors in mind, Anoka' s based aircraft annual growth rate of 4 . 2% was deemed reasonable and appropriate for application to the most recent Airlake data ( 153 based aircraft in 1986 ) in order to develop a forecast of based aircraft . Annual Operations The comparative trend analysis method logy utilized in forecasting based aircraft is basically the same for projecting annual operations . However , the data base was slightly changed. Because available operations data at the non-towered airports is estimated by MAC, only the towered airports of Crystal , Flying Cloud, and St . Paul Downtown were considered. From MAC records , annual operations data at these three airports was examined over the period 1970-1986 . Individual yearly changes in annual operations were calculated, and an in-depth analysis of the period 1983-1986 was developed. Annual operations at these three airports between 1983 and 1986 increased between approximately 15% and 30%, with annual growth rates ranging from 4% to 8 . 5%. Airlake ' s estimated increase over a similar period was 100%, with a growth rate of 26% per annum. Again, such growth was felt to be unprecedented and unlikely to continue at that rate . However, based on the comparative analysis of the three towered area airports , a projected annual rate of 5 . 5%, the mean rate of those airports , appeared reasonable. Therefore , the 5 . 5% was applied to the Airlake 1986 estimated 40 , 000 annual operations to obtain a forecast of annual operations . 2 . 2 . 2 Growth Rates Based on Population Total population and population growth rates are two of the most significant demographic elements impacting an air transportation market and thus the forecasting of aviation 2-4 activity. Historically, a general relationship has been established between population and aviation demand. Therefore , consideration of local population trends within the Airlake Airport geographic area is relevant to this forecasting effort . Two diffe-ent approaches to developing a forecast relating aviation activity and population were employed: growth trend analysis and regression analysis . A time-distance related market area for Airlake users was defined for use in both methodologies . Specifically, the area encompassed all communities , or parts thereof, within a 15 mile radius of the airport and an assumed driving time of no more than 30 minutes under normal conditions . Dakota and Scott Counties had the largest representation of cities , towns and townships . Hennepin County' s share was small ; Carver, Ramsey, and Washington were beyond the 15 mile radius . Examination of population trends began with a compilation of actual and forecast U.S .Deps.rtment of Commerce (Census ) and Metropolitan Council population counts within the defined Airlake service area. The results reflected substantial population increases between 1980 and 2000 : Percent Increase 1980-1990 1980-2000 AIRLAKE AREA 32 . 5% 37 . 9% Dakota County 28 . 8 44 . 1 Scott County 32 . 7 50 . 5 Anoka County 20 . 2 29 . 6 Carver County 20 . 4 30 . 4 Hennepin County 6 . 8 10 . 1 Ramsey County 2 . 8 3 . 7 Washington County 21 . 2 31 . 1 Seven County Metro Area 11 . 0 16 . 3 Source : Metropolitan Council . In contrast , the U.S . Department of Commerce' s recent population forecast indicates slower growth in both the state of Minnesota and the United States as compared to the Airlake service area. 2-5 Percent Increase 1983-1990 1983-2000 Mpls-St.Paul MSA 9 . 6% 21 . 8% Minnesota 6 . 6 16 . 5 United States 6 . 5 14 . 3 Source : U. S . Department of Commerce. Based on these national , state , and regional forecasts , it appears that the Airlake service area will continue to grow rapidly, especially in the early part of the study period. As mentioned in the previous section, the recent increase in the number of based aircraft at Airlake is unprecedented. The largest percent change in based aircraft at other MAC airports (excluding MSP) was at St . Paul Downtown with 9% during the period between 1984 and 1986 . In determining a based aircraft growth rate at Airlake related to population trends , a comparison of actual growth increases was made . 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 Airlake service area population 2 . 5% 4 . 8% 5 . 0% Based aircraft 3 . 3 47 . 6 64 . 5 Based on this trend, it is expected that based aircraft will continue to grow at a faster annual rate than that of the population over the forecast period. Annual growth rates of 5% and 2% per year per 10 , 000 persons , or twice the population annual growth rate ( 2 . 4% each year from 1986 to 1991 , under 1% thereafter) are considered reasonable . In other words , the increase in the number of based aircraft per 10 , 000 persons will grow faster, but in approximate relationship to the growth in the Airlake service area population: 5% from 1986 to 1991 , 2% thereafter . Annual operations were assumed to grow at a slightly higher rate based on recent facility improvements , the installation of an instrument landing system ( ILS ) approach and Airlake' s airport function as a secondary reliever within the metropolitan airports system. These rates were estimated at 8 . 8% up to 1991 , and 2 . 7% thereafter to 2006 . • 2-R 2 . 2 . 3 Regression Analysis Based on Population Regression analys:.s is a forecasting technique for estimating the mathematical relationship between one dependent variables and any number of independent variables . In fo -ecasting Airlake aviation activity, the independent variable was population, the dependent variable was number of based aircraft . In order to develop a forecast , based aircraft at Airlake for the period 1983-1986 were regressed in a simple linear formula against populationdata for the Airlake service area. While the amount of available aviation data was minimal for regression analysis , the R-squared value , which represents the degree to which an independent variable explains the variz.tion in the dependent variable (based aircraft) was . 9343 , indicating that a relationship did in fact exist . In other words , as the Airlake service area population increased, so did the number of based aircraft at Airlake Airport . A second analysis was performed using annual operations as the dependent variable . The R-squared value was . 9634 . Using projected service area population data, a forecast of based aircraft and annual operations based on these mathematical relationships were developed. 2 . 2 . 4 Market Share Analysis A market share analysis was performed in order to develop a forecast based on Airlake Airport ' s participation in aviation activity within the state of Minnesota. Participation in a larger context was not meaningful at this time because of the limited amount of available Airlake data and the magnitude of its numbers . Based Aircraft The total number of registered aircraft in the state of Minnesota was obtained from FAA records for the years 1980-1985 . Estimates for 1986 , 1991 , 1996 and 2006 were developed by applying a 1 . 0% annual growth factor to the 1985 data. This 1 . 0% factor was based on a FAA annual growth rate forecast showing : Total Active Aircraft 1 . 4% Active Single Engine Aircraft 0 . 9% Source : FAA Aviation Forecast, FY 1986-1997 . 2-7 Given the decline in general aviation shipments over the last several years , a 1 . 0% growth factor appears generous . The FAA reports declines in general aviation shipments of : 1979 4 . 3% 1981 21 . 0% 1983 37 . 0% 1984 10 . 0% Source : FAA Aviation Forecast , FY 1986-1997 . In order to develop a forecast , aircraft registration records for each of the seven counties in the metro area were examined and each county' s share (%) of the Minnesota total was calculated for the years 1980-1985 . This showed a remarkably stable market share for each county over this time period . MN Total Anoka Carver Dakota Hennepin Registered % of % of % of % of Year Aircraft MN MN MN MN 1980 5 , 979 1 . 6% 0 . 8% 3 . 5% 23 . 9% 1981 5 , 923 1 . 6 0 . 7 3 . 3 24 . 1 1982 5 , 793 1 . 6 0 . 7 3 . 3 24 . 2 1983 5 , 831 1 . 6 0 . 8 3 . 4 24 . 2 1984 5 , 932 1 . 7 0 . 9 3 . 6 24 . 1 1985 5 , 897 2 . 0 1 . 0 3 . 6 23 . 9 MN Total Ramsey Scott Washington Registered % of % of % of Year Aircraft MN MN MN 1980 5 , 979 9 . 4% 1 . 2% 2 . 4% 1981 5 , 923 9 . 6 1 . 3 2 . 5 1982 5 , 793 9 . 9 1 . 3 2 . 4 1983 5 , 831 10 . 1 1 . 4 2 . 4 1984 5 , 932 10 . 8 1 . 4 2 . 4 1985 5 , 897 11 . 0 1 . 6 2 . 5 Source : FAA Census of Civil Aircraft, 1980-1986 . However, when Airlake' s market share was determined, the rapid growth experienced in based aircraft was reflected in an increase in market share : 1 . 0% in 1983 , estimated at 2 . 6% in 1986 . Based on the assumption that Airlake ' s growth in based aircraft will continue , its market share should continue to increase , approximately doubling its percent of market share between 1985 and 1991 , and leveling off to a relatively stable share thereafter. 2-8 Annual Operations Forecasts of annual operations at Minnesota non-towered reliever and general aviation airports were developed from FAA actual and projected Minnesota state data. The FAA' s anticipated annual growth rates were extended over the forecast years . The market share of operations at each MAC airport ( excluding MSP) was calculated and analyzed for trends . As in the case of based aircraft , the market share of operations appears to remain stable over a period of time . MN Non- towered & GA Anoka Crystal Flying Cloud Year Airports % % % ( 000 ) 1984 1 , 526 9 . 5% 9 . 2% 10 . 9% 1985 1 , 612 1/ 9 . 9 8 . 9 10 . 9 1986 1 , 703 1/ 9 . 7 9 . 0 11 . 2 MN Non- towered & GA Lake Elmo St. Paul Downtown Year Airports % % 1984 1 , 526 6 . 0% 6 . 7% 1985 1 ,612 1/ 5 . 1 6 . 9 1986 1 , 703 1/ 4 . 1 7 . 3 1/Estimated. Source : Metropolitan Airports Commission, FAA National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems , 1984-1993 . However, Airlake' s share is growing as its aviation activity increases . Its operations market share was 1 . 5% in 1984 , and estimated at 2 . 3% in 1986 . Based on this trend, it is reasonable to anticipate that Airlake ' s share in the Minnesota market will continue to gain at approximately 0 . 1% per year for the next five years , and subsequently 0 . 5% until 1996 , when the share will stabilize . 2-9 2 . 3 Preferred Forecast Each of the four forecasting methodologies derived varying aviation activity figures , none of which stand out as being unreasonable or unreliable , and resulted in a range of forecasts for Airlake Airport shown in Figure 2-1 . In order to establish a workable set of forecast data for use in the planning of airport facility requirements , it was determined that the most reasonable activity data would be selected from the forecast range for each forecast year ( 1991 , 1996 , 2006 ) . The data selected for planning purposes were, in most cases , the high numbers from this forecast range . The high numbers provide the most effective means of planning the facility requirements based on the maximum levels of aviation activity which are expected to occur. This forecast data is usually updated every five years to take into account any aviation or economic trends that have had an impact on the airport . Airport improvements are therefore based on the more reliable , or short term five year data, rather than the long term, 20 year data. The following sections identify the preferred forecast of aviation activity for Airlake Airport . 2 . 4 Based Aircraft Forecasts The projection of based aircraft is used as a foundation to determine many elements of future airport facility requirements including hangars , tie-down areas and aircraft parking aprons . As mentioned in the Introduction of this chapter, the most reasonable numbers , as derived from the forecast methodologies , are the basis for planning . With these factors in mind, Table 2-1 represents the based aircraft for the forecast years at Airlake Airport. Table 2-1 Airlake Airport Based Aircraft Year Based Aircraft 1986 Actual 153 1991 212 1996 249 2006 348 Source : Hoyle, Tanner & Associates , Inc . 2-10 • • Figure 2-1 Airlake Airport Aviation Demand Forecast Range FORECAST RANGE : BASED AIRCRAFT 3539- 330- 0 Actual 310- 299- • Selected 270- 5 2530-230 X High 1/ g 210- t Low a 190- gg 170- 159- 130- uo- 90- 70- c So 1983 1986 1991 1996 _ 2006 YEAR FORECAST RANGE : OPERATIONS ( 000) 130- 120- 119- 100- 0 Actual g 90- S Selected 80- 70- and Hi 60- + Low 530- 40- _ • 30- 20- e 10 1983 1986 1991 1996 2006 YEAR 1/ Selected and high are the same except for Based Aircraft in 1991. • 2-11 2 . 4 . 1 Based Aircraft Mix Based aircraft must be identified and forecast by type to primarily determine hangar requirements , noise contours and other planning parameters . In 1985 the known based fleet included 83 single engine aircraft , 6 multi engine aircraft and 4 helicopters . It is assumed that by 1991 Airlake will base at least one business jet and turboprop aircraft . The largest share of the forecasted fleet will remain single engine aircraft but at a decreasing percentage over the study period. Multi engine aircraft are forecast to increase at an increasing rate , helicopters are forecast to increase slightly, and turbine powered aircraft are forecast to increase generally according to FAA forecasts . Table 2-2 reflects the forecast fleet mix as applied to the based aircraft forecasts . Table 2-2 Airlake Airport Based Aircraft Fleet Mix Turbo Heli- Year Single Multi prop Jet copter TOTAL 1985 83 ( 89 . 2%) 6 ( 6 . 5%) 4( 4 . 3%) 93 1986 136 ( 89 . 0%) 13 ( 8 . 4%) 4( 2 . 6%) 153 1991 184 ( 86 . 8%) 19 ( 9 . 0%) 2 ( 0 . 9%) 1 ( 0 . 5%) 6 ( 2 . 8%) 212 1996 213 ( 85 . 5%) 26 ( 10 . 4%) 2 ( 0 . 8%) 1 ( 0 . 4%) 7 ( 2 . 8%) 249 2006 293 ( 84 . 3%) 40( 11 . 5%) 4( 1 . 1%) 2 ( 0 . 6%) 9 ( 2 . 6%) 348 Source: Hoyle , Tanner & Associates , Inc . 2 . 5 Operations Forecasts Introduction Aircraft operations forecasts are used as a basis to analyze runway and other airport facility capacities . As with the previous section, annual operations will be derived from the same forecasting methodologies used to determine based aircraft . It should be noted that the operations forecasts are based on the most current data as collected by MAC, and represents MAC-estimated annual operations due to the lack of verifiable data from a control tower. 2-12 • Therefore , using the same criteria and factors for forecasting based aircraft , Table 2-3 shows the forecast of annual operations at Airlake to be used for planning purposes . Table 2-3 Airlake Airport Annual Operations Year Annual Operations 1986 Actual 40, 000 1991 61 , 000 1996 72 , 000 2006 116 , 700 Source: Hoyle, Tanner & Associates , Inc . 2 . 5 . 1 Operations Per Based Aircraft Although not a forecast technique, the calculation of operations per based aircraft is used as a check of the validity of future reasonable growth activity at the airport . In order to put the Airlake Airport operations per based aircraft in perspective, Table 2-4 compares these figures for all MAC airports ( except MSP) over a ten year period. This data is calculated from historical MAC records . It shows a fairly high figure in 1976 for all the airports that tends to decline over time . Table 2-4 further identifies the future operations per based aircraft at Airlake Airport based on forecast data for the forecast time period. Table 2-4 Airlake Airport Operations Per Based Aircraft Flying Lake St .Paul Year Airlake Anoka Crystal Cloud Elmo Downtown 1976 625 672 508 665 754 1981 391 458 319 378 403 1985 376 388 431 315 566 544 1986 261 404 443 339 467 555 1991 288 1996 289 2006 335 Source : Metropolitan Airports Commission. Hoyle, Tanner & Associates , Inc . 2-13 2 . 5 . 2 Local/Itinerant Forecasts On a national level , general aviation has benefited from many technological improvements to aircraft, primarily avionics and airframe composition material . While increased costs of these improvements have adversely affected the small private owner, this trend means increased purchases of larger aircraft with more sophisticated avionics for corporate and business travel . This development impacts total operations because itinerant flights will tend to grow faster than local operations . Although the majority of operations at Airlake Airport will remain local operations , the increase in itinerant operations will correspond to the previously mentioned national trend. As stated earlier, the lack of historical data made it difficult to identify any specific local/itinerant operations trends at Airlake . Therefore , the consultant analyzed known data for the MAC towered airports except MSP (Crystal , Flying Cloud, St . Paul Downtown) . This data came from two documents : the FAA FY 1985 Air Traffic Activity and the FAA Terminal Area Forecasts , 1985-1995 . From both documents the consultant generally found an operations split at Crystal and Flying Cloud of 60% local and 40% itinerant . The St . Paul Downtown split was generally the opposite, or 40% local and 60% itinerant . Due to the St. Paul Downtown airport ' s function as a corporate/business aircraft facility, it was determined that the operations data would be inappropriate for purposes of this comparison and was therefore not considered. As a result of this comparison , a further determination was made by the consultant that Airlake Airport operations would eventually attain a similar 60% local and 40% itinerant split by the year 2006 . Together with Airlake' s existing estimated local/itinerant split of 85% local and 15% intinerant, the interim forecast years of 1991 and 1996 were calculated according to the corresponding decline in local operations from 85% in 1986 to 60% in 2006 , and the corresponding increase in itinerant operations from 15% in 1986 to 40% in 2006 . Table 2-5 represents these assumptions and calculations . 2-14 Table 2-5 Airlake Airport Local/Itinerant Operations Based Local Itinerant Total Year Aircraft Operations Operations Operations 1986 153 34 , 000 ( 85 . 0%) 6 , 000 ( 15 . 0%) 40 , 000 1991 212 48 , 100 ( 78 . 9%) 12 , 900 ( 21 . 1%) 61 , 000 1996 249 52 , 200 ( 72 . 5%) 19 , 800 ( 27 . 5%) 72 , 000 2006 348 70 , 000 ( 60 . 0%) 46 , 700 ( 40 . 0%) 116 , 700 Source: Hoyle, Tanner & Associates , Inc . 2 . 5 . 3 Annual Instrument Operations Due to the lack of verifiable data from a control tower , annual instrument operations were estimated by the Fixed Base Operator (FBO) . Practice instrument approaches were estimated at six per day during the week and twelve per day on the weekend. This resulted in 54 operations per week or 2 , 808 practice instrument operations per year. Actual instrument operations , or those which file an instrument flight plan and land at the airport in instrument conditions , were estimated at 48 operations per day. The number of days in which instrument conditions are present ( i . e. , less than 1 , 000 ft. ceilings and 3 miles visibility) is 24 days, as taken from known Wind Rose (wind speed/direction computation) data. Therefore , there are 1 , 152 actual instrument operations per year. When combined, there are 3 , 960 total instrument operations (practice and actual ) per year . With 40 , 000 annual operations in 1986 , there were 0 . 099 annual instrument operations per annual operations . A similar comparison to the MAC towered airports (Crystal , Flying Cloud, St. Paul Downtown) was made to determine any trends in instrument operations and to reflect the expected increase in sophisticated corporate/business aircraft. As stated earlier , this national trend could affect the number of operations since the more sophisticated aircraft would tend to operate an instrument approach at Airlake Airport, thus impacting total instrument operations . This comparison of data was made from the FAA Terminal Area Forecasts , 1985-1995 . It showed a relatively stable rate of instrument approaches over the time period 1983-1995 at all three of the towered airports . 2-15 Another important factor which could influence the number of instrument operations at Airlake Airport, and most probably the practice instrument operations , will be the installation of an Instrument Landing System ( ILS ) approach at St . Paul Downtown and Flying Cloud in the near future . Although the number of sophisticated aircraft could tend to increase instrument operations at Airlake Airport , the consultant determined that this increase will be balanced out by the installation of ILS approaches at St . Paul Downtown and Flying Cloud, thereby lessening the practice ILS approaches at Airlake Airport . Consequently, and for planning purposes , the factor of 0 . 099 annual instrument operations per annual operations will remain constant throughout the forecast period. Table 2-6 reflects the annual instrument operations based on these assumptions . Table 2-6 Airlake Airport Annual Instrument Operations Annual Annual Instrument Year Operations Operations 1986 40, 000 3 , 960 1991 61 , 000 6 , 039 1996 72 , 000 7 , 128 2006 116 , 700 11 , 553 Source : Hoyle, Tanner & Associates , Inc . . 2 . 5 . 4 Peak Hour Operations Peak hour operations forecasts are calculated from the number of operations during an average day within the month having the most operations , or the peak month. Peak hour calculations are used to primarily determine runway capacity, with additional use in analyzing other airfield components and terminal capacities . Since there are no monthly operations records at Airlake Airport , and thus no accurate way to determine the relationship between peak month operations and annual operations , a percentage relationship was calculated from the three towered airports in the area: Crystal , Flying Cloud and St . Paul Downtown. Table 2-7 shows the percentage of operations from the peak month to the total annual operations for 1986 from the three airports . 2-16 Table 2-7 Airlake Airport Peak Month Operations Comparison 1986 1986 Total 1986 Peak Month Annual Airport Peak Month Operations Operations Percent Crystal May 16 , 120 152 , 773 10 . 6% Flying Cloud July 22 , 101 191 , 350 11 . 6 St . Paul Downtown August 13 , 879 124 , 786 11 . 1 Source : Metropolitan Airports Commission. Table 2-7 shows an average of 11 . 1% of peak month operations to annual operations at these airports. This percentage was then used to determine the peak month operations at Airlake Airport . Average day operations were computed as 1/30 of the peak month . The consultant then determined that based on its previous planning studies of airports with similar characteristics , such as a single runway, non-towered, active general aviation facility, the peak hour operations could be determined as 15% of average day operations . Table 2-8 reflects these peak hour calculations , identifying the maximum number of aircraft operations which can be accommodated on the airport ' s runway in an hour. Table 2-8 Airlake Airport Peak Hour Operations 1986 1991 1996 2006 Annual Operations 40 , 000 61 , 000 72 , 000 116 , 700 Peak Month 4 , 440 6 , 771 7 , 992 12 , 954 Average Day 148 226 266 432 Peak Hour 22 34 40 65 Source : Hoyle , Tanner & Associates , Inc . 2 . 5 . 5 Night Operations Night operations are defined as those which take place between 10 P.M. and 7 A.M. Due to the lack of historic data, night operations were based on an environmental assessment study of Airlake Airport previously developed by the consultant , and it was estimated that two percent of the annual operations will occur at night . For 2-17 planning purposes , this figure was determined reasonable and will be assumed constant throughout the study period. Projected night operations are shown on Table 2-9 . Table 2-9 Airlake Airport Night Operations Annual Annual Night Year Operations Operations 1986 40 , 000 800 1991 61 , 000 1 , 220 1996 72 , 000 1 , 440 2006 116 , 700 2 , 334 Source : Hoyle , Tanner & Associates , Inc . 2 .6 Forecast Summary The following table summarizes the forecasts developed in this chapter. 2-18 J Table 2-10 Airlake Airport Summary of Aviation Forecasts 1986-2006 Existing Short Term :intermediate Long Term Activity 1986 1991 _ 1996 2006 Based Aircraft 153 212 249 348 Annual Operations 40 , 000 61 , 000 72 , 000 116 , 700 Operations per Based Aircraft 261 288 289 335 Annual Instrument Operations 3 , 960 6 , 039 7 , 128 11 , 553 Peak Hour Operations 22 34 40 65 Annual Night Operations 800 1 , 220 1 , 440 2 , 334 Based Aircraft Fleet Mix: Single Engine 136 184 213 293 Multi Engine 13 19 26 40 Turboprop 2 2 4 Jet 1 1 2 Helicopter 4 6 7 9 Local/Itinerant Operations : Local 34 , 000 48 , 100 52 , 200 70 , 000 Itinerant 6 , 000 12 , 900 19 , 800 46 , 700 2-19 AGENDA REQUEST FORM ITEM NO. 1c9„ NAME: James Bell /4;00.0r7 DEPARTMENT: Park and Recreation DATE: April 23, 1987 Sit. - MEETING DATE: May 4, 1987 idiervipAJJ51'61 CATEGORY: Consent Agenda SUBJECT: Donation - Senior Center EXPLANATION: See attached REFERENCE MATERIALS/RESPONSIBILITY: REFERRED TO: (NAME) DEPARTMENT: Larry Thompson Administration Wayne Henneke Finance SIGNATURE i-7/26A7 7)4 „ / c /0„,,,(7,* dz.ff